Nigeria’s inflation accelerated in March, reversing the temporary relief seen in February, as festive spending during Eid al-Fitr, and renewed currency depreciation lifted prices across the board.
Headline inflation rose to 24.2%, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), up from 23.18% in February. Food inflation declined to 21.79% compared to last month, while core inflation—excluding food and energy—stood at 24.43%, reflecting the broad-based impact of import cost pass-through and utility price adjustments.
Analysts say inflationary pressures in March were fueled primarily by seasonal food demand, FX volatility, and higher telecom and logistics expenses.
“Seasonal farming constraints during Ramadan, heightened demand over Eid, and the depreciation of the naira all contributed to elevated prices,” said analysts at Meristem, a Nigerian financial services company that provides wealth management, stockbroking, asset management, and trustee services.
The naira weakened sharply in late February and early March, trading above ₦1,400/$ in parallel markets and eroding earlier gains seen after the CBN’s FX reforms in Q1. Importers and manufacturers passed rising input costs onto consumers, particularly in urban centers.
Samuel Oyekanmi, an analyst at Norrenberger, said March’s figures reflect “a balance between rebasing-related base effects and persistent cost pressures from the naira and fuel.”
Analysts expect inflation to remain sticky in the near term, with potential upside risks from electricity tariff adjustments and geopolitical disruptions to global supply chains.
“Trade tensions, especially between the U.S. and China, could disrupt input supply and escalate imported inflation,” said Olajide Oyadeyi, an economist at Econoday Inc. “This could worsen price stability for Nigerian producers heavily reliant on foreign goods.”
Meristem projects inflation to stay within the 20–24% band through mid-year, citing expected stability in energy prices and a slower pace of naira depreciation. However, the firm warns that “further FX volatility and commodity shocks could challenge this outlook.”
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to meet next month. With inflation now rising again and the naira under renewed pressure, markets anticipate the CBN may resume tightening or introduce liquidity management measures to support the currency and contain inflation expectations.
