Independent auditors have warned President Bola Tinubu that raising the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to an average of 6% is ambitious and unattainable for him
Nigerians will pay more taxes if President Bola Tinubu’s goal of growing Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by an average of 6% in the next four years is to be achieved. That’s the view of analysts from the audit advisory firm KPMG Nigeria. The auditors also added that Nigeria risks increasing its debt burden should Tinubu go all out to bring his inauguration speech- where he made this overambitious promise- to fruition. During his campaign, the president promised double-digit GDP growth. Last month, Tinubu removed fuel subsidy and spoke about plans to unify the nation’s exchange rates.
The report, authored by Partner/Chief Economist KPMG Nigeria, Yemi Kale and Associate, Research and Insights KPMG Nigeria, Olanrewaju-Afuye Busayo, stated that Nigeria’s growth since 2019, has been fragile, not growing fast enough to contain population growth. The analysts have projected Nigeria’s growth in 2023 to hover between 2.7-3.2%. “Thus, if we assume a GDP growth of 3% in the first year, the economy will then have to grow by an average of 7% for the subsequent three years and moving growth from a forecasted 3% in 2023 to at least 7% in 2024 and afterward seems overly ambitious.
“At the same time, attaining a 6% real GDP growth on average from 2023 to 2026 means growing the value of real GDP from ₦74.6 trillion in 2022 to ₦92.5 trillion by 2026 representing an increase of ₦17 trillion in 4 years. However, within 12 years, 2010 and 2022, real GDP grew by about ₦17 trillion, which will have to be replicated in just four years and within a much more challenging macroenvironment that cuts across the fiscal, monetary, external, and real sectors,” the report explained, justifying its position.
“We are of the opinion that an average GDP growth rate of between 4-4.5% at the best is more feasible in the next 4 years. Even this will require the country to get its policies right and keep consistent faith with macroeconomic reforms,” the note explained.
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