Nigeria’s headline inflation slowed for the first time in 2025 after a Consumer Price Index (CPI) rebase, on lower petrol costs and a stable naira. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday put February’s inflation rate at 23.18%, down from 24.48% reported in January 2025.
A decline in diesel and petrol prices due to increased output from Dangote Refinery helped temper inflation, with a cascading effect on the broader economy, driving down costs for consumers and businesses alike. Diesel prices dropped by 33% to ₦1,000/liter, while petrol prices remained steady around ₦800+ per litre. Food inflation for February was 23.51%, down from 24.08% recorded in January.
Analysts believe that Nigeria’s inflation is at an inflection point—following the CPI rebasing—and expect inflation to accelerate as soon as April. Those analysts now predict that the CBN may fail to reach its target due to global economic factors.
“My outlook for 2025 in Nigeria in spite of the rebasing is an average rate of 31% for the year. So, expect worse monthly numbers deep into 2025,” said Basil Abia, co-founder of data and research firm Veriv Africa. “It will mostly not be the fault of Nigeria’s policymakers, but rather due to global economic factors, similar to how the pandemic affected Nigeria’s economy in 2020.”
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in February held interest rates at 27.50% after assessing recent macroeconomic developments—including exchange rate stability and a gradual slowdown in fuel price increases—and the rebasing of the CPI index.
