In the world of prediction markets like Polymarket, a hot topic of discussion is when popular projects will conduct token airdrops. Investors are placing massive bets, sometimes ranging from hundreds of millions to a billion dollars, on whether protocols will offer token airdrops. For instance, “There have been significant activities such as betting $100,000 on whether LayerZero will drop tokens by the end of April”.
According to a report by Bitwise, a user recently earned over $3 million in rewards. The focus of the bet was the well-known NFT meme project “On Chain Shiba (OCS),” which speculated on “when” and “which users” would be targeted for the airdrop. Cryptocurrency enthusiasts are betting on which protocols will offer token airdrops, and platforms like Polymarket are seeing substantial activity.
Predictions are not only centered around OCS, where speculators expect high profits but also on platforms like Tensor on Solana and Eigenlayer on Ethereum.
The upcoming OCS airdrop is set to be the project’s largest to date, utilizing a method known as the “Reverse SnapShot”. Typically, airdrop projects take a snapshot on a specific date and distribute airdrops to addresses active up to that point. However, this has been criticized for favoring early users and insiders, hindering new user acquisition.
To address this, OCS has announced a transaction deadline in advance, and only addresses that have engaged in NFT transactions between the undisclosed snapshot date and the publicly announced transaction deadline will be eligible for the airdrop.
For example, if the transaction deadline is June 30, 2024 (public), and the snapshot date is May 1, 2024 (undisclosed):
Only addresses that have transacted between May 1, 2024, and June 30, 2024, will be eligible for the airdrop. Addresses that transacted only before April 30, 2024, will not receive the airdrop.
This approach aims to attract new users and stimulate trading activity.
Summary of On Chain Shiba Airdrop Conditions by Bitwise:
- Airdrop Calculation Method:
Reverse Snapshot - Transaction Deadline:
00:00 UTC0, May 31, 2024 - Calculation Start Date:
Undisclosed - Airdrop Token Name:
$LBM (already listed on Cex) - Total Airdrop Amount:
Equivalent to $10 million USD (based on the price as of 00:00 UTC0, May 1, 2024) - Airdrop Distribution Calculation:
Based on NFT Rarity
Other calculations are undisclosed.
A massive airdrop is on the horizon!
“Airdrop by June 30?”
Polymarket has emerged as the focal point for these predictions, with an astonishing $40 million wagered so far. This figure, though modest compared to other sectors, highlights the intense interest and activity surrounding cryptocurrency airdrops.
A diverse array of 23 networks, platforms, and Layer 2 solutions are garnering attention. Each of these solutions boasts at least two months of significant user engagement. Four platforms, including the aforementioned OCS, Solana NFT marketplace Tensor, and real estate marketplace Parcl, have confirmed upcoming airdrops, promising up to 80% profits for early speculators.
Attention is shifting to prominent competitors such as Layer 2 solutions Blast and Base, restaking tool Eigenlayer, multi-chain network LayerZero, and social finance application Friend.Tech. These platforms captivate investors’ imaginations, with substantial funds bet on the possibility of token distributions.
Specifically, OCS has generated considerable buzz, with over $5 million wagered on the possibility of a token drop by the end of May.
Meanwhile, Eigenlayer has emerged as a top contender, attracting bets exceeding $560,000 with a 66% probability of token release by June 30. The allure of airdrops extends beyond mere speculation, with investors also eyeing the potential valuation of platforms post-token release. Conservative estimates peg market caps at $40 billion, reflecting various expectations within the crypto community.
Layer 2 solutions, which enhance the scalability and speed of major blockchains like Ethereum, are a focal point. Similarly, restaking—earning rewards by staking assets in additional protocols—is gaining popularity for its promise of higher yields and future token rewards.
Stablecoins are poised to surpass traditional payment systems like Visa in terms of settlement volume, driven by their versatility and growing adoption in payments and remittances. The resurgence of a crypto bull market is expected to significantly boost stablecoin growth in 2024.
Let’s look ahead to key updates to stay ahead of the game.
Bitcoin, Coinbase, and Mainstream Tokenization: Analysts predict Bitcoin’s price could exceed $80,000 due to the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the recent halving event, which reduces supply. These catalysts are expected to attract both retail and institutional investors, stimulating demand for major cryptocurrencies.
Coinbase is poised for sharp revenue growth, bolstered by a bull market, innovative product launches, and its role as the primary custodian for Bitcoin ETFs.
“Wall Street expects Coinbase’s revenue to grow by 9% year-over-year…we believe it could at least double,” Bitwise analysts added, indicating that their forecasts far exceed those of Wall Street.
Major financial institutions like JP Morgan are gearing up to tokenize real-world assets, leveraging blockchain technology to enhance efficiency and access rapidly expanding markets.
Bitwise’s report states, “By launching a tokenized fund in 2024, JP Morgan will be able to capitalize on the efficiencies offered by on-chain assets.”
From Bitcoin price surges to mainstream adoption of tokenized assets, the cryptocurrency landscape in 2024 is predicted to be tumultuous. Investors are betting on the future of finance, where innovation and opportunity intersect in the digital realm.
