For much of the past decade, early-stage exits in Africa were rare. Investors poured millions into startups, but few delivered liquidity events for their early backers. That’s starting to change—and early-stage investors are no longer leaving it to chance. They are deliberately engineering exits from the ground up.
Investors now look for startups built with a clear path to profitability and exit logic from the start, said Olu Oyinsan, managing director at Oui Capital, on Wednesday during an Ask an Investor fireside chat at Moonshot by TechCabal. Oui Capital, the early-stage VC firm he co-founded in 2018, recorded a 53x return from its early investment in Moniepoint, the Nigerian fintech that became a unicorn in 2024.
“The driver of returns is value,” said Oyinsan. “Value at the company level is revenue, cash flow, and profit. If you’re not creating these things, you’re not creating value. If there’s no value, there’s nothing to convert to cash. The money VCs invest in startups comes from other people, called LPs [limited partners]. So when you think a VC is giving you a tough time, remember they’ve seen ten times that.”
The growing number of exits in Africa supports this shift. Nigerian startups OmniRetail and LemFi recently delivered returns of 5x and 29x, respectively, for their early investor, Silverback Holdings. In Francophone Africa, Saviu Ventures sold its majority stake in Ivorian logistics startup Kamtar to Logidoo, showing that exits are becoming part of the continent’s venture story. So far in 2025, Africa has recorded 29 mergers and acquisitions (M&As) in the first half of the year, more than in any other half-year period.
According to data intelligence firm Briter, while Africa’s total deal volume dropped by 28% in 2024, exit activity rose slightly, pointing to a market where investors are moving away from hype-driven funding cycles toward disciplined portfolio construction, which emphasises sound entry valuations, operational efficiency, strong ownership positions, and founders who can attract follow-on capital or strategic exits from later-stage buyers.
For Oyinsan, engineering exits means backing businesses with a clear path to profitability. He describes this as businesses with a “fixed cost recovery” that make more money than they spend on an operational fixed cost basis over time.
“You need to know if it is contributing to fixed cost recovery,” said Oyinsan. “If I buy a bottle of water for ₦50 and sell it for ₦55, one day I’ll sell enough bottles to cover my rent. But if I buy for ₦50 and sell for ₦50 or less, I’ll never create value,” he added, emphasising his point.
He also noted that conviction in founders remains the strongest indicator of success. Oui Capital’s bet on founders is based on the founders’ technical and industry depth of understanding, their product, and their discipline in execution. For Oyinsan, building conviction means backing founders who have a strong drive for the solutions they want to create and are in the market to build long-term.
“Their ‘why’ determines what happens when things get tough,” said Oyinsan. “As a VC, you don’t invest in any company that you don’t think is going to return your whole fund. You have to go for the long shots, and when you do that, invest in a lot of them. You need to have that kind of conviction, and if you don’t, you have to walk away.”
Another recurring theme during the session was the role of diversification. The best results often come when startups align product readiness with clear market demand and know how to strongly sell their product to customers. For investors, making moonshot bets on these startups is what separates their fund from risk or ruin.
“Make sure that in all the investments you’ve made, make sure that a few can make you make all the money you’ve invested in all the companies,” said Oyinsan. “You have to diversify across sectors, currencies, and even stages, so that if some pillars fall, your fund doesn’t collapse.”
Africa’s venture market is still in its early stages, and sustainable exits will take time to mature. Building startups with clear exit pathways, investor discipline, and operational strength will be key to turning isolated success stories into a repeatable model for the continent’s venture ecosystem.
Mark your calendars! Moonshot by TechCabal is back in Lagos on October 15–16! Meet and learn from Africa’s top founders, creatives & tech leaders for 2 days of keynotes, mixers & future-forward ideas. Get your tickets now: moonshot.techcabal.com
